MARKET ANALYSIS
The Global Pension Fund Landscape
Pension alternatives allocations have doubled from 15% in 2010 to over 30% in 2025. WSIB and CalPERS are targeting 40%+. That is trillions in incremental capital flowing to PE, real estate, infrastructure, and private credit managers -- the single largest demand driver in private markets.
The OCIO model is accelerating among corporate pensions. Shell handed a $40 billion mandate to Goldman Sachs in 2025. For fund managers, this consolidation means fewer decision-makers to reach -- but those decision-makers are more sophisticated and harder to access.
The Canadian pensions -- CPPIB, OTPP, CDPQ, OMERS -- run 40-60% in alternatives with in-house deal teams that compete directly with GPs. Asian and European pensions are studying the model closely, particularly the fee savings from direct investing. Whether they can replicate it without Canadian-scale talent pools remains an open question.
Fully funded plans have more room to allocate to alternatives. HOOPP (109% funded) and TCRS (100%+) can take illiquidity risk that underfunded peers cannot. As more plans approach full funding, the shift from deficit reduction to surplus optimization is creating incremental demand for private market strategies.